Donald Trump’s Long-Promised GDP Growth Rates Are Unlikely in Next Few Years, Economists Say
The U.S. economy will grow by two percent in 2017 and 2018, according to a survey of nearly four dozen economists by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), a far lower mark than the three-percent target that President Donald Trump and the White House are aiming for.
The NABE’s economic estimates remain unchanged compared to the last survey in June, with Trump having little ability to sway their opinions on GDP growth over the last few months. The survey revealed that respondents believe that the economy will grow by 2.2% in 2017 and 2.4% the following year. While economic outlook has improved in recent months, the weak start at the beginning of the year will be enough to stem growth rates and prevent the U.S. from hitting its three-percent goal.
While the current projections align with the White House for 2017, the NABE reports a lower expectation for 2018. The Trump administration has promised a gradual increase to three-percent GDP growth rates by 2020, but the discrepancy in projections for 2018 between NABE economists and the administration does not bode well for the White House or the U.S. economy.
Three-percent growth would represent a slightly below-average increase since World War II.
Trump plans to use his infrastructure spending and tax cut plan to help spur the economy and lead to the three-percent growth rate. Neither plan has been passed by Congress.
The tax cut plan is late and will face staunch opposition from Democrats. The plan features cuts to taxes across the board, but with many of the U.S.’s top earners being the beneficiaries of the new taxation policies.
Trump is hoping that his policies will be able to reinvigorate the American economy and lead to a higher GDP growth than the country is used to in recent years. But the major obstacle facing him is that Congress remains as polarized as ever, with partisan legislative efforts often failing, if they’re even started at all.
“Economists see slower growth for U.S. than Trump does,” USA Today, September 25, 2017.